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发布时间:2014-03-16 学员风采展示 浏览: 发表评论

Fitch says Polish utilities capex plans to be adjusted

(The following statement was released by the rating agency)

Sept 27 Fitch Ratings believes that Polish utilities will adjust their long term capex plans in response to the worsened canada goose store market conditions for conventional power generation. The agency anticipates that the project pipeline for new generation capacity will be subject to postponements or cuts to avoid the risk of overcapacity by the end of the decade and to address a worsened return expectation of some planned projects. Fitch believes that utilities may re allocate some of the planned capex from conventional generation to power canada goose clearance sale distribution or renewables given the lower risk profile of the latter my website https://www.thecanadagooseoutlet.com Canada Goose Outlet two segments. As a result, any capex adjustment may not necessarily lead to large cuts in canada goose coats on sale the total planned capex. Several years ago, Polish utilities announced large capex plans in generation in order Canada Goose Parka to renew their old, obsolete generation fleet and to balance short positions cheap canada goose uk in generation. buy canada goose jacket The plans were based on the canada goose factory sale assumptions prevailing in 2008 2011 of strongly growing energy demand, rising electricity prices and the prospective price of CO2 allowances allowing for the profitable operations of new, more efficient, coal fired plants and gas fired plants. However, market conditions have deteriorated since early 2012 as electricity prices came under pressure (average wholesale electricity spot prices fell to PLN169 per megawatt hour in Q212 compared to previously expected prices growing substantially above PLN200 in the mid term). An additional factor depressing prices was slowing power demand growth due to the economic slowdown in Poland in January August 2012, demand grew by 0.2% compared with 1.9% growth Canada Goose Jackets in the whole of 2011. Furthermore, historically low CO2 prices, a growing contribution from renewable energy sources uk canada goose as well as cheap imported energy from Sweden and Germany affected the price canada goose black friday sale level. A new risk factor for large canadian goose jacket new build generation projects is the financial difficulties of some construction companies taking part in the tenders as the conditions in the Polish canada goose construction sector have deteriorated significantly in recent months. (‘BBB ‘/Stable) suspended the construction of a new 1GW coal fired unit at the Ostroleka power plant citing difficulties in obtaining funding in a buy canada goose jacket cheap project finance formula and the Canada Goose Online unfavourable situation in the Polish construction sector. Fitch believes that the probable postponements or cancellation of some large scale projects Canada Goose Coats On Sale in generation will not result in a massive reduction in total long term capex spending. As evidenced by the Energa case, uk canada goose outlet much of the PLN6bn (or one third of PLN18bn total capex for 2012 2018) earmarked previously Canada Goose sale for the new unit in Ostroleka, will be spent in Canada Goose Outlet other areas such as distribution networks, gas power plants and renewables with the average annual capex of around PLN3bn only slightly below Fitch’s previous forecast. The agency believes that shifting capex from long term cheap Canada Goose large scale generation projects to the distribution network and smaller scale renewables projects should result in a lower business risk canada goose coats profile due to a higher contribution of regulated or quasi regulated earnings to EBITDA. This shift will also improve capex flexibility as such investments could be stretched over a longer period of time and frozen temporarily canada goose uk black friday due to market conditions. Fitch remains skeptical about the successful realization of large gas fired plants in Poland due to canada goose uk shop a canada goose uk outlet combination of high gas prices and low CO2 prices. Instead, Fitch believes that there is a higher canada goose clearance probability that smaller co Canada Goose online generation plants will be developed and spread across the country, supporting diversification of fuel sources. A combination of heat and electricity generation with local output should help achieve greater efficiency and profitability. For all of Fitch’s Eurozone Crisis commentary go to here (Caryn Trokie, New York Ratings Unit).

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